Waiver Wire Week 12
Making the Right Call
You ever make the wrong call on the Waiver Wire, and it ends up costing you your week? That happens to all of us. "If only I picked up Jameis instead of Russell Wilson, I would have won!" or "If only I started X instead of Y!" Or my favorite: "If only I had been higher in the waiver priority, I would have grabbed Taysom Hill and won my week!"
IF. IF. IF. Unfortunately, this isn’t how fantasy football works. We analyze the data, trends, and matchups, then make the best choices based on the information we have. And even with the best process, things can still go sideways. But here’s the key: if you stay diligent, keep doing the right things, and stick to your process, it will work out in the long run.
Also, consider what you’re targeting when you make those decisions. Did you need a safe pick? If so, Russell Wilson was the right call, even if it didn’t pan out. Did you need upside? Then Jameis Winston was your guy. It’s all about process over results. Stay consistent, trust your strategy, and eventually, the results will reflect the work you’ve put in.
Now, on to Waiver Wire Week 12!
I break things into tiers based on league size. Here are my parameters:
8-Team Leagues: Under 60% rostered
10-Team Leagues: Under 40% rostered
12-Team Leagues: Under 25% rostered
Percentages are based on ESPN roster data.
Tier 1: 8-Team Leagues (Under 60% Rostered)
QB: Anthony Richardson (43.6%)
Richardson finally showed his league-winning potential in Week 11. He threw for 272 yards and one touchdown while adding 32 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The most encouraging sign? His efficiency, completing 66.7% of his passes. The designed runs were there, the accuracy was there, and most importantly, the Colts got the win!
His 28.1 fantasy points landed him as QB4 for the week, giving us everything we dreamed of in the preseason. With an upcoming matchup against the Lions, who have one of the better offenses in the league, Richardson and the Colts will need to put up points to keep pace. If he’s available in your league, do not hesitate—pick him up ASAP!
RB: Jonathon Brooks (53.9%)
We’ve waited all season for this moment. Brooks is finally making his debut, but his first matchup is against the Chiefs, who rank #1 against RBs. Not exactly the soft landing fantasy managers were hoping for.
The real issue here is the unknown. Will he be a 5-8 touch handcuff, or can he carve out a more meaningful role? Most likely, he’ll have a light workload in his first game. I’d be shocked if he received more than 10 touches. Brooks feels like a lottery ticket that might not pay off in time to help this season.
WR: Jerry Jeudy (58.2%)
The Browns’ offense will be a recurring theme this week, and Jeudy was the big Dawg on Sunday. He caught 6 of his 11 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. Over the last three weeks, he’s averaged 10 targets per game and posted double-digit fantasy points in each outing.
While his upcoming matchups against the Steelers (twice) and Broncos are tough, Jeudy could be a stash for the fantasy playoffs where he faces the Chiefs (13th against WR), the Bengals (20th against WR), and the Dolphins (5th against WR). If you have the bench space, grab him now.
TE: Taysom Hill (46.2%)
WE DID IT! WE SPOKE IT INTO EXISTENCE! Taysom Hill had his Taysom Hill Game this year:
8 catches for 50 yards
7 carries for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns
18 passing yards, a fumble, and an interception
EXHALE. His 41.52 fantasy points were a week-winner in every league format.
Will he do it again? Probably not, but Hill has at least six touches per game in his last five outings. As I said last week, he’s one of the few healthy weapons on the Saints, and with Chris Olave sidelined, Hill should remain the #2 option behind Alvin Kamara. His week-winning upside makes him a must-roster player.
Tier 2: 10-Team Leagues (Under 40% Rostered)
QB: Matthew Stafford (28.2%)
Stafford was fantastic in Week 11, throwing for 295 yards and 4 touchdowns, good for 27.8 fantasy points. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy, Stafford has everything he needs to produce solid QB1 numbers.
While his upcoming matchups—Philadelphia, New Orleans, Buffalo, San Francisco, and the Jets—are tough, Stafford’s volume and weapons should keep him in the low-end QB1 conversation.
RB: Trey Benson (17.3%)
Welcome to the RB wasteland. Benson has received 9 and 10 touches in his last two games, leading the team in rushing last week with an impressive 6.2 yards per carry.
James Conner has been a workhorse for Arizona, but as the Cardinals push for a playoff spot, they may look to lighten Conner’s load. I could see him hovering around 10 touches per week, which would make him one of the most valuable handcuffs in the game. Benson doesn’t have standalone value yet, but if Conner were to miss time, Benson could immediately become an RB2.
WR: DeMario Douglas (26.2%)
Douglas continues to be a solid option since Drake Maye took over as the Patriots’ quarterback. He’s averaged 7 targets and just over 10 fantasy points in his last three starts.
While his production isn’t flashy, Douglas has a favorable schedule for the rest of the season and should be in line for consistent opportunities. He’s a solid flex option in deeper leagues.
TE: Jonnu Smith (31.7%)
Since Week 5, Smith has averaged just under 7 targets per game, pushing him to TE8 for the season. He’s overtaken Jaylen Waddle as the #2 option in the Dolphins’ passing attack (or #3 if you count Achane).
Since week 7 Smith has more targets, yards, and fantasy points per game than Tyreek Hill.
Smith’s consistent volume makes him a reliable TE1 the rest of the way, and he has a favorable matchup against the Patriots this week.
Tier 3: 12-Team Leagues (Under 25% Rostered)
QB: Jameis Winston (8.5%)
Jameis won some people their weeks with his 26.6 point performance! In a brutal loss to the revitalized Saints (they must have hated their head coach), Winston threw for 395 yard and 2 touchdowns. He’s averaged over 40 pass attempts per game, which gives him consistent QB2 upside.
But he is still Jameis and it’s hard to figure out if he’s going to throw for 3 touchdowns or 3 interceptions.
His next months schedule is brutal: he faces the Steelers twice, the Broncos, and the Chiefs. Not exactly a cakewalk. The Steelers and Broncos both rank top 4 against QBs, and the Chiefs defense, though it was exposed by Josh Allen, is a talented group holding 7 out of 10 opponents under 21 points. The good news is that the Browns should be trailing in each of these games and they will continue to throw early and often. While Winston’s volume will keep him relevant, he’s a risky streaming option.
RB: Roschon Johnson (14.2%)
In the Bears’ first game under new OC Thomas Brown, Johnson split time with D’Andre Swift:
Swift: 57% snaps, 14 carries, 2 targets
Johnson: 42% snaps, 10 carries, 1 target
Johnson has served as the Bears’ goal-line back and has scored over 10 points in all three games where he’s earned 10+ touches. With a tough schedule ahead, the Bears face the Vikings twice, the Lions twice, and the 49ers, his standalone value may be limited, but he’s worth a stash in deeper leagues.
WR: Elijah Moore (9.4%)
Since Jameis Winston took over as the Browns’ QB, Moore has averaged just under 10 targets per game. This week, he delivered with 6 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown.
Moore’s low aDOT and first-read target share make him a safe flex option with a consistent floor, though his ceiling remains capped. Expect him to push for around 10 points weekly.
TE: Will Dissly (13.9%)
Dissly has averaged six targets per game since Week 5 and has two games with 80+ receiving yards in that span. He has been the Chargers’ top target in recent weeks and the inconsistent nature of TE, and the increased passing volume that the Chargers have shown the last month, Dissly figures to be a low-end TE1 / high end TE2 the rest of the season.
Trust your process, analyze the data, and go win your week!