Waiver Wire Week 11
A moment to reflect
This late in the fantasy season you might have some glaring holes in your team. Injuries, depth chart changes, or performance drop offs might have killed your team throughout the year. BUT at least you didn’t spend $1 billion on a stadium that actively harms your team’s performance.
I like to look at things optimistically and I never give up while I still have a chance. We have four weeks until the playoffs. I’m in a great position in two leagues, having already clinched playoff spots. In the third league, I’m one game up with tiebreakers, so essentially two games ahead. If I win two of the next four games, I’m in. It’s a good spot to be in. I’ve also been in the spot where I has 4-6 needing to win three of four games to get in, oh, and I had the worst team in the league. That’s a lot of pressure, but I managed to do it by working the waiver wire and trading for a rookie by the name of Justin Jefferson, who went nuclear and saved my season. In my worst fantasy year, with my worst fantasty team, I managed to win a ridiculous championship. Trust the process, keep doing the right things, and enjoy the wins! Remember, it’s about process over results. Keep starting the studs, keep playing players in favorable matchups, and chase targets as much as you can.
Now, on to Waiver Wire Week 11! I break things down by tiers and league size; here are my parameters:
Anything under 60% I consider for an 8-team league.
Anything under 40% I consider for a 10-team league.
Anything under 25% I consider for a 12-team league.
Percentages are based on ESPN numbers.
Who are we picking up this week?
Tier 1 / 8-Team League
QB: Bo Nix (50.5%) – I must confess, I was worried about him against Baltimore and Kansas City. Both defenses are phenomenal against the run, and much of Nix’s production has been on the ground up to this point. However, he proved something to me this week against the Chiefs: his passing has improved significantly! Nix completed 22 of 30 passes for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s scored over 16 points in 5 of his last 6 games, and with 3 favorable matchups ahead, he’s someone you can stream with confidence.
RB: Jaylen Warren (61.5%) – Early waivers pushed him above 60%. He had 14 carries for 66 yards and caught 2 passes for 29 yards. Unfortunately, nearly every backfield now features a committee. Warren, however, is the pass-catching back who also gets a fair share of the run game. Plus, if anything happens to Najee Harris, Warren would likely become an RB1.
WR (MUST ADD #1 PRIORITY): Cedric Tillman (50.3%) – It’s hard to believe he’s not 100% rostered. Since the Amari Cooper trade, he’s excelled in every game. Over the past three games, Tillman has averaged 7 catches, 85 yards, and a touchdown per game, with over 10 targets on average. As I said previously, this could be a late-season pickup on the Amon-Ra St. Brown scale. It looks like he is the truth.
TE: Hunter Henry (53.8%) – He had a down week against a struggling Bears team, but I wouldn’t be too discouraged. The Patriots won’t often have positive game scripts. Before this week, he had three straight games with at least 5 targets and 9.5 points. He’s one of the few tight ends with a consistent target share and potential for a solid 5/45 line. They play the Rams this week, which should force the Patriots into a pass-heavy script.
Tier 2 / 10-Team League
QB: Matthew Stafford (30.8%) – He struggled against Miami, which has a fantastic pass defense, but still managed nearly 300 yards. With a couple more touchdowns, it could have been a great performance. He’s a gunslinger with more potential than most other waiver options and has a decent matchup against the Patriots.
RB: Audric Estime (1.2%) – Sean Payton said he’d be more involved, and he was! Estime impressed with 14 carries for 53 yards in the Broncos’ heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs. Most importantly, he earned 14 of the 17 RB carries. He hasn’t earned much receiving work, which limits his ceiling, so he’s more of a stash until he adds passing-game usage.
WR: DeMario Douglas (26.3%) – Douglas has been a regular on this list, averaging double-digit points and a 21% target share when Drake Maye is under center. He’s the top pass-catcher on a bad team, which means the negative game scripts should work in his favor. Against a tough Bears secondary, he managed 4 catches on 5 targets for 50 yards, a respectable 9 points. Better matchups and scripts lie ahead.
TE: Taysom Hill (35%) – Hill needs a touchdown for to payoff, but he’s one of the few healthy options in this offense. He’s averaged 7 touches and over 9 points per game over the last three weeks. Every week there’s the potential for a “Taysom Hill” game, where he racks up stats across the board. Few tight ends on the wire have that upside.
Tier 3 / 12-Team League
QB: Jameis Winston (5.3%) – Confession: I love the Jameis Winston experience. 300 yards and either 3 touchdowns or 3 interceptions. It’s a box of mystery! We’ve already seen both sides, with good Jameis against the Ravens (334 yards, 3 touchdowns) and bad Jameis against the Chargers (235 yards, 3 interceptions). The Saints traded their best corner, Marshon Lattimore, and have been on a downward spiral since Week 2. I’m in on Jameis this week, but his schedule gets tougher after that.
RB: Trey Benson (15.9%) – James Conner was surprisingly ineffective on the ground last week (he made up for it with a touchdown and his pass catching ability), while Benson thrived with 10 carries for 62 yards, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. He also added 2 catches for 25 yards. He’s the clear No. 2 back, but with Conner’s injury history, Benson has the opportunity to earn a significant role. If Conner misses time, Benson has RB1/2 potential.
WR: Elijah Moore (4.9%) – Moore struggled against the Chargers, with 3 catches for 29 yards on 9 targets. Despite this, he remains a primary short-pass target, leading the team in first-read targets. Moore’s consistency makes him a solid flex option, while Tillman has WR1 upside. A waiver-wire player with double-digit targets is rare, so pounce when you can.
TE: Will Dissly (1.7%) – Deep dive here: Dissly has secured 20 catches from 29 targets over the last four weeks. Averaging 5 catches per game at this point in the season makes him a valuable streaming option if your tight end is on bye.’