Start / Sits Week 14
Win and You're in!
Start / Sits are an art and a science. There are several factors to consider: the first is the player - is he elite, good, or just average? The second is the matchup - who are they playing, is the defense any good, is the specific matchup (like Jeudy vs. Surtain) advantageous or a downgrade? Another factor to look at is recent performance: is there any way you can trust them anymore (I’m looking at you, Deebo!), are they on a heater, did they just drop a 40-burger? The most important factor is: “How will I live with myself if X happens?” If I bench James Cook for Tyrone Tracy in Week 15 and Cook goes off, would I regret it more than if the opposite happens?
These rankings are tailored for a 10-person PPR league. Specific rosters, league size, and weekly matchups all play a role in lineup decisions. For example, in a 6-person PPR league, a player like Rhamondre Stevenson might not be a must-start. In a 14-person superflex league, you better believe I’m starting Cooper Rush every week.
Label Definitions:
Must Starts: You should absolutely start these players.
Matchup Upgrade: Players recommended for starting but not over "must starts." These are borderline starters with favorable matchups, positive game scripts, or recent strong performances.
Grounds for Concern: Players with negative matchups, poor game scripts, or recent struggles. A Must Start player can be in this category.
Cleveland Browns Vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Must Starts:
Browns: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku
Steelers: Najee Harris, George Pickens
Matchup Upgrade:
Pat Freiermuth - He’s had 10 catches in his last two games on 11 targets. He’s coming off his best game of the season, bringing in 6 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown against the putrid Bengals defense. The passing game is faring fairly well under Russ Wilson. Cleveland is 22nd against TEs, and AFC North battles are always physical. I like MUUUUTH to hit that 5-catch mark and get around 10 points. He’s a solid streamer if your TE is on bye this week.
Grounds for Concern:
Nick Chubb - He’s done so much to get back from his knee injury. Typically, it takes about two seasons before someone returns to their old self, and some, like Javonte Williams, seem like they will never get back. All that to say, he’s averaging only 3 yards per carry this season and he split carries with Jerome Ford last week—9 each.
Chubb traditionally hasn’t added much in the passing game, though last week he had 2 catches for 21 yards and a touchdown, which saved his fantasy day. He is a VERY touchdown-dependent RB2, and with Cleveland throwing the ball at a high rate, those opportunities can be iffy. He found the end zone twice last game against the Steelers in a snowstorm, but I’m not seeing it this game. If he doesn’t find the end zone, he’s looking at 50 yards on the ground and 1 catch for 15 yards, which would be 7.5 PPR points.
New Orleans Saints Vs New York Giants
Must Starts:
Saints: Alvin Kamara
Giants: Tyrone Tracy, Malik Nabers
Matchup Upgrade:
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Desperation Flex) - His production is not sustainable in the long term. We play a weekly game, though, and he only needs to hit on one play to be effective. According to @FantasyPtsData:
“I'm sorry to share this news with you, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 2.84 YPRR against single-high looks ranks top-12. The Giants deploy single-high looks at the league’s 4th-highest rate (62.4%).”
Translation: He will get opportunities to take the ball deep. With Taysom Hill’s season now over and no Chris Olave, there are limited options in this offense. With 6 teams on a bye this week, now is a good time to roll the dice on a boom/bust player.
Grounds for Concern:
Wan’Dale Robinson - He was one of my favorites earlier in the year, but with the change of QB, his value has plummeted. He was WR19 in Weeks 1-5. On Thanksgiving, he only earned 2 targets—big problem. The coaching staff made a point to feed Malik Nabers, as they should, which left Robinson out in the cold. He has a low floor and low ceiling, not the type of player that inspires confidence. I do not see any reason to start or even consider starting him in a 10-12 team league.
New York Jets Vs Miami Dolphins
Must Starts:
Jets: Breece Hall (if active), Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson
Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith
Matchup Upgrade:
Dolphins Defense: The last three games, the Jets have played the Seahawks, the Colts, and the Cardinals. Against the Seahawks, the Jets gave up 2 sacks, a fumble, a blocked kick, and a pick-6, which was good for 16 points. Against the Colts, the Jets gave up 3 sacks, and the Colts' defense had its best game of the month with 5 points. Against the Cardinals, the Jets only scored 6 points, gave up 3 sacks, and lost a fumble, good for 11 points.
While the Dolphins did get torched by the Packers, their previous 3 outings before that game averaged just under 4 sacks per game and just under 1 turnover per game. With Breece Hall potentially limited and Aaron Rodgers playing at his career worst, this is a great potential streamer. I’m streaming them instead of the Bills (who play the Rams) in my 12-team league.
Grounds for Concern:
Breece Hall - I still consider him in the must-start category, but in the low-end RB2 range. His injury is concerning, and his coach has been noncommittal about him playing this week. If he does play, he might be limited like last week.
Much of Hall’s ceiling this year has been in the pass-catching department. He’s had 5 games with fewer than 4 catches; in those games, he’s averaged 7.38 points per game. He’s had 7 games with 4 catches or more, and in those games, he’s averaged 21.7 points per game. He had 0 targets last game, and the passing work went to Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, who combined for 5 catches, 44 yards, and a touchdown.
I would monitor the injury reports and see what the updates are. I would struggle to bench him due to his high upside, but I would lower my expectations this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars Vs Tennessee Titans
Must Starts:
Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr.
Titans: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley
Matchup Upgrade:
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: As I wrote in my Waiver Wire Column, Westbrook-Ikhine is the improved model of MVS due to his target volume: he has 19 targets in the last three games. The more looks he gets, the more opportunities for big plays.
The Jaguars have the second-worst pass defense in the NFL, having given up the most 20+ yard receptions (56) and are tied for the most 40+ yard receptions given up (10). His 40% touchdown rate is unsustainable in the long term, but this week, against this defense, I would flex Westbrook-Ikhine. The matchup is great, the QB trusts him, and he should get plenty of opportunities to hit one deep.
Grounds for Concern:
Brian Thomas Jr.: Trevor Lawrence’s season looks over. The nasty hit he took while sliding also limits Brian Thomas’ fantasy value. BTJ has thrived on the deep ball, and TLaw loves to throw it. According to FantasyPros.com, Lawrence averaged 3.2 throws greater than 20 air yards per game (6th in the league), about 1 throw over 30 yards per game, and 0.4 throws over 40 and 50 yards respectively.
Mac Jones, in contrast, is averaging just over 1 throw per game over 20 yards. In Jones’ two starts, BTJ had games of 3.2 points and 13.6 points. Jones significantly limits BTJ’s ceiling.
He’s still earned 17 targets over his last two games, so that should keep his value afloat as a WR2/Flex, but unless he finds the end zone, I believe he will fall short of his projected 14 points on ESPN.
Atlanta Falcons Vs Minnesota Vikings
Must Starts:
Falcons: Bijan Robinson, Drake London
Vikings: Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson
Matchup Upgrade:
Darnell Mooney: It has been brutal the last few weeks. Kirk Cousins has seemed to come crashing back down after playing Tampa Bay, and Mooney, along with Kyle Pitts, has suffered for it. Mooney has been held under 30 yards receiving in his last two games.
The good news is twofold: first, this is a Kirk Cousins revenge game, and second, the Vikings rank last against WRs in fantasy this season. I’m betting on a Kirk Cousins turnaround this week and for Mooney to return to form. I’m projecting that he will go 7 for 70 and have a nice 14 points.
Grounds for Concern:
Kyle Pitts: He’s trending down hard. Pitts has had less than 12 yards receiving in three of his last four games and was held without a catch last Sunday. The coaches seem to have noticed his struggles as well—he logged only 39% of the snaps on Sunday, per Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL on X), which is roughly a 30% drop from his season average.
Big problems. Pitts isn’t, and never has been, a touchdown guy. He’s only averaging 6.1 points per game when not playing Tampa Bay this season. Bench him.
Carolina Panthers Vs Philadelphia Eagles
Must Starts:
Panthers: None
Eagles: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
Matchup Upgrade:
Eagles Defense: This unit has not given up more than 20 points since Week 4. This includes great offensive units such as the Ravens, Bengals, Rams, and Commanders. That’s impressive stuff.
Bryce Young has played better recently, but he’s still raw. The Eagles have been able to get to the QB with 3+ sacks in each of the last four games and have forced 10 turnovers in the last five games. They currently rank as DEF10 overall on ESPN, but I have them as a top-3 play this week.
Grounds for Concern:
Chuba Hubbard: My love for Hubbard has been well documented since the preseason, but we saw what I was worried would happen with the return of Jonathan Brooks: less volume leading to inefficiency. Last week, he had 12 carries for 43 yards and a fumble. His 2.3 points were his lowest since Week 1. More importantly, he was held without a catch for the third time this season.
Hubbard’s volume has been what has kept him in the RB2/1 conversation all season. Last week, Jonathan Brooks had 6 carries and 3 catches. If Brooks stays around 8 touches a game to Hubbard’s 12-14, then Chuba quickly becomes a low-end flex play. I would start Hubbard again this week unless I have a better option (which might be difficult with so many teams on a bye), but with a bad matchup against a top-5 defensive unit and a backup that looked good in limited work, Hubbard might be off the must-start list next week.
Las Vegas Raiders Vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Must Starts:
Raiders: Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
Bucs: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans
Matchup Upgrade:
Cade Otten: He has not been heavily involved in the passing game since Mike Evans returned, managing only 5 catches for 50 yards in the last two games. However, Evans is dealing with hamstring and calf injuries and missed Wednesday and Thursday’s practice. No word yet if he’s playing, but if not, Otten moves to a must-start.
When Evans was out earlier this season, Otten had 2 games with over 21 points and averaged nearly 10 targets per game. Assuming Evans plays, Otten is still in a great matchup against the Raiders, who rank 29th against TEs and have given up the second-most yards to the position. That’s excellent news. Despite his struggles over the last three games, he’s still averaging 6 targets per game in that span. I think he’ll rebound nicely.
Aidan O'Connell: He threw for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Chiefs in what should have been a win on Black Friday. A late fumbled snap ruined a nearly perfect outing. Now, he follows that up with a matchup against Tampa Bay, a team that has been very friendly to QBs.
Bryce Young threw for 298 against them last week, and Kirk Cousins has had his only two fantasy-relevant starts against them. Jared Goff, Spencer Rattler, Kirk Cousins (twice), Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Bryce Young have all thrown for 240+ yards against the Bucs. With the way Tampa Bay’s offense has been playing and the lack of a consistent running game, the Raiders will likely be in a passing script. I expect O’Connell to make the most of his opportunity.
Grounds for Concern:
Rachaad White: This is clearly Bucky Irving’s backfield now. Irving out-carried White 25-11 and had 3 receptions to White’s 1. White is averaging 10.25 points per game since Irving took over two weeks ago.
While White remains a flex candidate, what made him a top-5 fantasy RB last season was his elite volume; that volume is now going to Irving. What’s most concerning is the passing game work—he’s had only 2 catches in the last two games, compared to averaging 5 per game in the previous four. It’s a decent matchup against the Raiders, but if he fails to see passing game work, his value drops from a low-end RB2 to a low-end flex play at best.
All LV RBs: It’s just too much of a committee, without a single back dominating enough valuable volume to comfortably start anyone—especially if Alexander Mattison plays this week. Sincere McCormick would be my bet in a super-deep league due to the volume he received (12 carries for 64 yards and 2 catches for 1 yard), but that’s nothing to get excited about. If he gets 14 touches again this week, then he might be someone to consider moving forward.
Buffalo Bills Vs Los Angeles Rams
Must Starts:
Bills: Josh Allen, James Cook
Rams: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp
Matchup Upgrade:
Khalil Shakir: He’s been the steady drip of the Bills' offense. Before last week’s snow-filled rout of the 49ers, Shakir had scored 10+ points in 9 out of 10 games. The model of consistency!
The Rams rank 19th against WRs, making this a plus matchup. The Rams' offense should also keep the game close enough for Shakir to see his typical usage. He’s WR30 for the year but ranks 8th in ESPN’s consistency rating. He’s the type of player I love having on my team—someone I can count on for 12 points week in and week out.
Grounds for Concern:
Matt Stafford: The Saints had a great game plan against the Rams: run, run, run! The Rams only had 3 plays in the first quarter but, due to the Saints’ lack of depth and inability to finish drives, still pulled out a late victory.
I started Stafford in one league, and it was ugly until the 4th quarter. Two late touchdowns saved what would have been an UGLY performance. Now, he faces a Bills team that ranks 3rd against QBs and is 6th in run rate, meaning they may employ a similar game plan to the Saints.
Stafford has the receiving corps, but the Rams love to run the ball in the red zone: Kyren Williams has the second-most carries inside the 20 and the most inside the 5. Facing a difficult defense, I just don’t think he’ll pass for the 3+ touchdowns needed to put him in the QB1 discussion.
Los Angeles Chargers Vs Kansas City Chiefs
Must Starts:
Chargers: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey (if playing)
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
Matchup Upgrade:
Will Dissly: Yes, I know he scored 0 last game. It was strange for a player who consistently puts up 4 catches for 45 yards to only get 1 target. Last week, the Chiefs were shredded by Brock Bowers, though he is an elite talent. Against Carolina, the Chiefs gave up 9.5 points to the Panthers’ TEs, who aren’t quite the talent of Dissly.
Before last week’s dud, Dissly had scored at least 8 points in five of six games and had been the consistent #2 pass catcher in this offense. With Ladd McConkey either out or potentially limited due to injury, Dissly should have more opportunities in what should be a close game.
Grounds for Concern:
Running Backs: Before the season started, Isiah Pacheco was a consensus top-15 running back. He showed that value in his first two starts, averaging 16 points per game. That changed after his injury, and questions arose about who would take over. Kareem Hunt quickly emerged as a near 1-for-1 replacement.
Now that Pacheco has returned, it has muddied the backfield, making neither player viable for fantasy. The matchup doesn’t help either—the Chargers rank 6th against RBs and have only been lit up by Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. Neither Pacheco nor Hunt are playing at that level. James Conner and Chase Brown had good games against them, but that was due to volume and pass-catching. In this committee, neither RB will command the necessary volume to be a must-start.
Chargers’ RBs: Gus Edwards is a TD-dependent flex play at best. He’s likely to have 20 carries for 52 yards and maybe 1 catch for 8 yards. The Chiefs’ defense ranks 1st against RBs, and Edwards has only 1 catch since returning from injury. His ceiling is incredibly limited.
Kimani Vidal is an interesting stash in deeper leagues, but he only earned 4 carries last game for 20 yards—not enough to consider starting in a 10-team league.
Seattle Seahawks Vs Arizona Cardinals
Must Starts:
Seahawks: Kenneth Walker III, D.K. Metcalf, JSN
Cardinals: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr. (MHJ), Trey McBride
Matchup Upgrade:
Cardinals Defense: They’ve held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 10 points or fewer and have recorded 19 sacks during that span. The defense is cooking. Add in that the Seahawks rank 27th against defenses, and this is a golden matchup.
Last week, the Jets’ defense scored 17 points against the Seahawks thanks to a pick-six, 3 sacks, a blocked kick, and a fumble recovery. The week prior, the Cardinals defense had 5 sacks and a pick for 12 points. Even the struggling 49ers defense managed 4 sacks and a pick for 8 points against the Seahawks.
Grounds for Concern:
Kyler Murray and Geno Smith: Both the Seahawks and Cardinals defenses are playing well, which is bad news for the QBs. Last time these teams faced off, Geno scored 12.36 points, and Kyler scored 10.3.
This game will be indoors compared to the rain-soaked matchup two weeks ago in Seattle, but neither QB has done anything recently to inspire confidence. Kyler’s rushing ability makes him startable since he could break off a 40+ yard run at any time, but I’d look for other options instead of Geno.
Chicago Bears Vs San Francisco 49ers
Must Starts:
Bears: De’Andre Swift, D.J. Moore
49ers: Brock Purdy
Matchup Upgrade:
Keenan Allen: In his last two games, he has scored 23.6 and 24.3 points, respectively. "Sleevean Allen" is a real thing!
The Bears’ offense has turned the corner since Thomas Brown took over play-calling. Caleb Williams is finally playing to his potential, and Keenan Allen has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. Last year, he was WR2 through Week 13 and has always been an effective PPR WR, serving as a security blanket for young QBs.
The 49ers just got humiliated by the Bills, and their best offensive weapon (CMC) is out, while their best defensive player (Fred Warner) is dealing with a broken bone in his ankle. This is the type of game that ends a season. I think the Bears win convincingly against a broken team, and Allen has a big game.
Grounds for Concern:
Deebo Samuel: He looks slow and can’t get open. Samuel has always thrived in the open field with YAC, but his ability to separate seems diminished. Even before the season, there were warning signs: according to FantasyPoints.com, Samuel ranked 70th of 125 qualifying WRs in average separation score in 2023.
It’s a team-wide problem. As David Lombardi noted last week, the 49ers rank last in separation at the time of the catch (3.0 yards). Samuel has just 63 receiving yards in his last three games, averaging just over 4 points per game. Now, he faces a Bears secondary that just shut down Justin Jefferson. He’s a sit for me.
Cincinnati Bengals Vs Dallas Cowboys
Must Starts:
Bengals: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Cowboys: Rico Dowdle, CeeDee Lamb
Matchup Upgrade:
Cooper Rush: I have a friend whose dad is convinced that Cooper Rush is better than Dak. That’s why SO MANY teams lined up to sign him after his 5-1 stretch as a starter (just kidding, but not really).
Rush is a fine backup QB. He can manage the offense and win against bad teams. The Bengals are a bad team on defense, ranking 30th against QBs and just got torched by Russ Wilson. With Lamb expected to play, the game script will likely be pass-heavy, giving Rush plenty of opportunities to dump the ball off.
He would be a decent streamer this week if needed. I don’t anticipate a 20-point game, but 16 or so is possible, which is fine for a streamer.
Grounds for Concern:
Bengals Defense: I’ve read many articles suggesting the Bengals defense is a good streaming option, but I disagree. The Cowboys’ offense is nothing special, but the Bengals' defense is poor. Their talent level, turnover generation, and EPA are all near the bottom of the league.
The Cowboys’ offense will likely score 24+ points and protect the ball. The Bengals’ defense only scored 1 point against the Panthers earlier this season, and I don’t see them doing much better here.