Waiver Wire Week 14
It All Comes Down to This!
This is the last week of the regular season for most leagues. The last chance to make the playoffs or to solidify your roster.
A quick note on my recommendations: at this point in the season, I want players who can win me a week, not so much floor plays. I don’t recommend Gus Edwards due to his limited ceiling. I don’t recommend Alexander Mattison for the same reason. There are some, such as Elijah Moore, who have more than a safe floor but also a solid 18-point ceiling that will help win a week.
I break things into tiers based on league size. Here are my parameters:
8-Team Leagues: Under 60% rostered
10-Team Leagues: Under 40% rostered
12-Team Leagues: Under 25% rostered
Percentages are based on ESPN roster data.
8-Team League
QB: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (56.9%)
Once again, a not-great day passing was made up for by his rushing. He went 12/24 for 109 yards, a touchdown, and an interception through the air, but added nine carries for 48 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He’s a cheat code. There were some drops that would have helped his passing numbers, but overall, he’s looked much better after being benched. He’s had 21+ points in two of his last three games.
Now he’s on a bye and then faces an interesting schedule for the fantasy playoffs: Denver (4th against QBs before Jameis lit them up last night), Tennessee (24th against QBs), and the Giants (21st against QBs). He could be a championship-winning QB if you can get through Round 1. His rushing ability gives him the potential to win you the game every week. There are few QBs with this type of upside. Grab him if you can.
RB: Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers (Priority Add - 1.8%)
Such a sad ending to CMC’s season. This, along with Jordan Mason being placed on IR, thrusts Guerendo into the starting role. I actually liked him more than Mason as a game breaker; he has much more burst than Mason, and now he’s the starting running back in a Kyle Shanahan offense. What’s not to love about that?
He’s had two games with 10+ touches: Week 6 against Seattle, where he went 10 carries for 99 yards, and Week 8 against Dallas, where he had 14 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown, along with three catches for 17 yards.
His big-play potential gives him league-winning upside. He may not add much to the passing game but could be a solid RB2/3 moving forward. His remaining schedule is fairly light: the Bears in Week 14 (22nd against RBs), the Rams (23rd) in Week 15, the Dolphins (21st), and the Lions on Championship Sunday (2nd).
WR: Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns (48.8%)
He should not be available, but here we are. In the games before his concussion, since the Amari Cooper trade and Jameis Winston taking over, Tillman averaged 18.6 points per game from Weeks 7-11. There was a bye week in that stretch, but he was WR8 on average points per game. In the snow-filled game against the Steelers, he still saw a quarter of the targets before going down with his injury.
Jerry Jeudy has seen more targets and seems to have developed a rapport with Winston, including the ridiculous 9/235/1 last night, but Tillman is still a viable WR2/3 moving forward. The Browns have thrown the ball at a significantly higher rate compared to when Deshaun Watson was the starter: Watson only topped 40 pass attempts in seven games, compared to four times in five games for Winston.
The Browns should continue to be in passing game scripts, and Nick Chubb is not up to full speed. During the fantasy playoffs, they face the Chiefs (15th against WRs), the Bengals (22nd against WRs), and the Dolphins (2nd against WRs). So, two plus matchups and one poor one. If he’s on your waiver wire, you need to add him.
TE: Will Dissly, Las Angeles Chargers (32.6%)
Before the goose egg on Sunday, Dissly had scored at least 8 points in five of six games and had been the consistent #2 pass catcher in this offense. I think this is just a random blip. Before the game against Atlanta, Dissly averaged around six targets per game since Week 5 and had two games with 80+ receiving yards in that span.
Given the inconsistent nature of TEs and the increased passing volume the Chargers have shown over the last month, I still have Dissly as a low-end TE1 / high-end TE2. His consistent performances have been something that fantasy managers could count on. Hopefully, he can get back to it. This week, he faces a Chiefs defense that ranks 30th against TEs.
10-Team League
QB: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (37%)
The goal of the waiver wire is to win games—especially at this point in the season. Williams has a new play-caller, Thomas Brown, and has faced a gauntlet in the last three games, going up against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions. Yet, he passed with flying colors, averaging 23.1 points during that stretch, good for QB3!
He’s connected well with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen—WR1 and WR4 respectively during that three-game stretch. It’s not just through the air, where he’s averaged 275 yards per game, but also on the ground, where he’s averaged 47 rushing yards per game. He’s had all the tools to be successful, with the exception of experience and play-calling. He’s quickly gaining the experience, and it looks like the play-calling issues have been fixed.
He still has a difficult schedule the rest of the way, facing the 49ers, Vikings, Lions, and finishing with the Seahawks (assuming Week 17 is the last week for fantasy). He should be in the QB1 conversation the rest of the way.
RB: Jeremy McNichols, Washington Commanders (10.5% Rostered)
Fantasy legend Austin Ekeler found himself on IR this week, and Washington has a bye, so he would not be able to return until Week 18. Brian Robinson Jr. has been dealing with injuries this season, leaving an opening for McNichols.
While the game was competitive, Robinson out-snapped McNichols 2-1, so this is clearly still Robinson’s backfield. If McNichols can take on Ekeler’s role as the pass catcher out of the backfield, then he has potential value. However, he did not earn a single target last week, so that if is purely speculative. He’s worth an add due to his potential if anything were to happen to Robinson.
His stand-alone value is lacking. I wouldn’t worry about Christian Rodriguez, as he didn’t get involved until the game was well in hand.
WR: Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers (27.3%)
Thielen had a vintage game against Tampa Bay, posting eight catches on 10 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown. This week’s matchup against the Eagles is a bit worrisome, but if he gets 6–8 targets, he’ll be fine.
His playoff schedule includes Dallas (21st against WRs), the Cardinals (17th), and the Bucs again (26th). Given his age and injury history, there is some risk involved, but he is a trusted target of Bryce Young, who is playing significantly better than earlier in the season. The defense is poor, leading to higher-scoring games, and his playoff schedule is excellent.
Remember, in Weeks 1–6 last year, Thielen was WR3! I would add him in a 10-team league if possible.
WR: Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns (13.4%)
Moore was overshadowed by Jerry Jeudy’s return to Denver, but he had a great night himself! He posted eight catches for 111 yards on 14 targets. He responded well after a dud performance the previous week. However, it’s hard to count the snow-filled Thursday night game against him, where he had only three catches on five targets for 21 yards.
Before that, Moore was averaging just under 10 targets per game. With Cedric Tillman likely out with a concussion and Jerry Jeudy facing a Pat Surtain shadow, I like Moore this week to produce WR2/Flex numbers.
Moore’s low aDOT and first-read target share make him a safe flex option with a consistent floor. I would lower expectations this week against the Steelers, but after that, I would roll with him every week.
TE: Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints (5.2%)
Unfortunately, our fantasy hero Taysom Hill suffered an ACL injury and is out for the season. Juwan Johnson is one of the few healthy options on the Saints' roster. He’s gone over 40 yards only three times this season and has not had an inspiring year so far.
The formula for fantasy success is Talent + Touches + Targets. Johnson should see more opportunities with targets opening up, making him a viable streamer this week, especially with six teams on a bye.
His matchup is poor, as the Saints face the Giants, who get gashed by everyone except TEs. If you are in a tough spot, Johnson should get 5–7 targets.
12-Team League
QB: Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns (9.5%)
My football hero. He played the perfect Jameis game last night in Denver, throwing six touchdowns—never mind that two were to the wrong team. In a difficult matchup, Winston threw for 497 yards… that’s right 497 yards! He also had four touchdowns and three interceptions.
While he’s not matchup-proof—he struggled against the Steelers in the snow and against the Chargers—he provides upside that very few quarterbacks can. That’s exactly what we’re looking for on the waiver wire come playoff season: someone who can win you a week!
As mentioned above, the Browns have thrown the ball at a significantly higher rate compared to when Deshaun Watson was the starter. Watson only topped 40 pass attempts in seven games, compared to Winston, who has done so four times in five games.
The Browns should continue to be in passing game scripts, especially with Nick Chubb not at full speed. Winston has a tough matchup against the Steelers, who rank #1 against QBs, but then faces the Chiefs (23rd), Bengals (30th), and Dolphins (4th) in the fantasy playoffs. He could win you a quarterfinal or semifinal matchup against those defenses.
QB: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (4.8%)
Levis has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games and is clearly unafraid to air it out (for better or worse). He plays Jacksonville twice (ranked 32nd against QBs), the Bengals (30th), and the Colts (18th) during the playoffs.
Levis has a nice 1-2 punch in Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. He has scored 15+ points in all four of his games post-injury. While I don’t think he has 30-point potential, his matchups suggest he should be able to get to 20 or more points. Once again, not a safe pick, but we’re trying to win the whole thing.
WR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans (20%)
Westbrook-Ikhine has 20 catches and eight touchdowns. That means 40% of the time he catches the ball, he takes it to the house. That’s insane—and unsustainable.
Some have argued that he’s similar to MVS, but I’d argue he’s more reliable than MVS due to his target volume: he has 19 targets in the last three games. The more looks he gets, the more opportunities for big plays.
His matchups look great! Like Levis, he faces Jacksonville twice (ranked 30th against WRs), the Bengals (22nd), and the Colts (16th). Levis isn’t afraid to throw it deep to him or Calvin Ridley. I’m planning on adding him in my 12-team league this week.
WR: Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars (0.9% Rostered)
Washington had a breakout game against the Texans, earning 12 targets and turning them into six catches, 103 yards, and a touchdown.
The Jaguars' defense is bad, and the run game is lacking, so the game scripts will favor a passing attack. It might be advantageous for Washington if Mac Jones starts, since Trevor Lawrence loves to throw it deep to BTJ. He’s worth a flyer in deeper leagues.
TE: Noah Gray, Kanas City Chiefs (7.1%)
Sometimes I think Mahomes confuses him with Kelce… All jokes aside, Gray has seemingly carved out a role in this offense.
He’s had four catches in each of the last three games, and his four touchdowns during that stretch have vaulted him to TE4 over the same span. Touchdowns are a bit luck-dependent, so don’t count on them consistently, but if you’re desperate for a streamer, you could do worse than a guy catching passes from the best QB in the game.
The matchup isn’t ideal, as the Chiefs face a Chargers defense that ranks 8th against TEs.
RBS: No one except for handcuffs - Remember, the premise is to win the league, so players such as Sincere McCormick or Ameer Abdullah just don’t do it for me.
Handcuffs to grab to get ready for the playoffs!
There are very few players who hold equal or near-equal value to the starters they replace. For example, Zeke Elliott would not produce as well as Rico Dowdle. Keeping Elliott as a handcuff would be a waste of a roster spot.
Here are three players available in deeper leagues to ensure you have—if you roster the starter or have the space:
RB: Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams (14.1%)
There was an uproar on X as Blake Corum started ahead of Kyren Williams and got the first five carries of the game. He ran well, and I immediately checked if he was available in my leagues. However, after that, it was basically all Williams. Corum showed he has the trust of the coaching staff—a staff that likes to establish the run.
While he has no standalone value, Corum would be a borderline RB2 if anything happened to Williams. Corum is one of the most elite handcuffs in fantasy football.
RB: Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills (11.2%)
Davis has already shown what he can do if James Cook misses time. In Week 6, he finished with 20 carries for 97 yards and three catches for 55 yards.
The Bills are splitting carries more than I like as a James Cook manager in two leagues, but Davis is only seeing 5–6 touches per game at this point. Still, he has flashed RB2 potential with big plays against the Dolphins, 49ers, and Jets. As a Cook manager, I’m making sure I have Davis for the playoff push.
RB: Braelon Allen, New York Jets (21.7%)
When Breece Hall missed practice and was later questionable, I thought it might be time for Braelon Allen to show what he could do as the starter. However, it was not meant to be, as Hall started, and Isaiah Davis seemed to handle the plays Hall missed rather than Allen.
I would still roster Allen if I managed Hall. With the Jets’ season essentially over, they might shut Hall down early if he sustains any nagging injuries. Allen could become a valuable late-season handcuff.