End of Year Trade Targets
End of Year Trade Targets
Buys and Sells for your playoff run
There was a question asked online: “Do I overpay for Saquon? I have a great squad this year, and I feel like it will put me over the top.” Without knowing all the details of the trade or what he considers an "overpay," I said, "Yes, absolutely!" Let's assume you're in a 10-team league and you're fairly good at fantasy football. Typically, in these leagues, 1 person is clueless, 2-3 people struggle with fantasy, 4 people are decent, and 2-3 people are strong competitors. Any given year, there are 2 dominant teams that are a cut above the rest, and 3-4 teams that have a legitimate shot at winning it all. This means your chances of having a dominant team only come around every 3 years or so.
You might get lucky, as many of us have, and win with a less-than-stellar team, or you might get unlucky and lose in the first round with the best team. Either way, you want to increase your odds of winning it all. You do this by adding stud players with HUGE upside, like Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson, or Justin Jefferson. If you can acquire these players without significantly hampering your starting lineup, then do it! Empty the bench! Use the depth that you've built through hard work, good calls, and a bit of luck.
For most of us, Justin Jefferson isn’t available for trade, so below are players you can trade for who have fantastic playoff matchups or could be undervalued. A player like Calvin Ridley was a discount a few weeks ago, but now you'd have to pay full price, so he’s not included here (though trade for him if you can).
I've also listed players I’d trade away (not at a discount), who have concerning playoff matchups or who might cool off in the latter part of the season.
Here are my receipts from previous weeks:
Trade For:
Joe Burrow (Week 3)
George Pickens (Week 3 and Week 6)
Ja'Marr Chase (Week 3)
Calvin Ridley (Week 7)
Mark Andrews (Several times after week 2)
De’von Achane (Any week after Tua’s injury)
Players to Trade For:
RB:
Chuba Hubbard: I’ve been Chuba’s biggest fan all season! I predicted his success in the preseason (as an RB2, not an RB1, to be fair). As the season went along, I recommended trading him away, considering he was in the last year of his contract, Jonathan Brooks’s return was imminent, and the season seemed lost, so they’d look to future players. That changed after the trade deadline when Hubbard signed a massive extension and Brooks didn’t return after Week 4; now we’re looking at Week 12. There aren’t enough games left for Brooks to be fully ramped up, and Hubbard has been running incredibly effectively. I don’t see this as a 50/50 split or even a 60/40 split—I see Hubbard continuing to get 20 touches a game to Brooks’s 5-7. You should be able to get him at a discount due to concern from his manager. His playoff matchups are fantastic: Dallas (28th against RBs), Arizona (25th against RBs), and Tampa Bay (27th against RBs). He’s been an RB1 all season; I don’t see him falling much lower than that the rest of the way.
James Conner: He’s been an absolute steal this year, as he is every year. He’s not flashy, but he’s always effective. He wasn’t very efficient against the Jets and ceded double-digit carries to Trey Benson, which is slightly concerning but not enough to panic over. It was a blowout, and the Cardinals had a bye the next week, so it made sense to limit his carries. In the playoffs, he faces the Patriots (24th against RBs), Panthers (last against RBs), and Rams (14th against RBs). This is a fantastic schedule for a team that likes to run the ball and relies on Conner to set the tone.
Bucky Irving: Irving has quietly scored over 15.4 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games. Post-bye, his schedule is spectacular—Panthers, Giants, and Raiders. His playoff schedule looks decent too; after a Week 15 game against the Chargers (3rd against RBs), he faces Dallas (28th against RBs) and the Panthers (last against RBs). If you make it to the semifinals, Irving is someone you can set and forget. The only argument against him is that he needs a touchdown to deliver big points, but with Godwin out, Irving is arguably the second most likely to score on the team.
WR:
D.J. Moore: It’s not a talent issue, but an opportunity one. The OC and QB haven’t lived up to expectations, which has limited Moore’s production. He’s currently WR32 on the year, averaging only 11.1 points per game. The good news is that the offense should improve with a new play-caller and more experience under Caleb Williams. For the playoffs, Moore faces the Vikings (30th against WRs), Lions (31st against WRs, though this game is at home, so expect possible weather issues), and Seahawks (26th against WRs). The talent and matchups are there; the only question is whether the opportunities will be. I’d say yes, and you could probably get Moore for a couple of bench players or a 2-for-1 deal. Since his production is speculative, don’t overpay.
Jauan Jennings: He filled the Brandon Aiyuk role well last week, reminding us of his potential. Jennings turned 11 targets into 7 catches for 93 yards and 16.3 fantasy points. His lack of name value and below average play (outside a 46.5-point performance in Week 3) should keep his price reasonable. In Week 15, Jennings plays the Rams (22nd against WRs), followed by Miami (7th against WRs) in Week 16, and Detroit (31st against WRs) in Week 17—a game where the 49ers will likely be playing catch-up. Jennings is someone I’d target by offering a flex player to gain a potential WR2.
Mike Evans: The Immortal One. The Touchdown Machine. The dude who has favorable matchups deep into the playoffs. He starts in Week 15 with a difficult matchup against the Chargers (6th against WRs) but then faces the Cowboys (19th against WRs) and the Panthers (14th against WRs). The Bucs rank 3rd in pass rate above expectation, meaning they throw often. Evans, as the primary target, should thrive post-bye. His injury risk remains, but now is the time to buy on Evans.
Marvin Harrison Jr.: On bye this week, but he’s finally producing consistently: at least 5 catches and 16 fantasy points in two of his last three games. Rookies often take time to peak in fantasy value. Check out his schedule: Week 12 vs. Seattle (26th against WRs), Week 13 vs. Vikings (30th), Week 14 vs. Seattle again, Week 15 vs. New England (17th), Week 16 vs. Carolina (14th), and Week 17 vs. Rams (22nd).
TE:
David Njoku: You’ll have to pay a premium, but that’s okay. Last season, when Joe Flacco took over for the Browns, Njoku began a league-winning run. He was TE1 from Weeks 13-17. This season, he’s currently on a hot streak, and his playoff schedule is favorable: Week 15 vs. Chiefs (31st against TEs), Week 16 vs. Bengals (29th against TEs), and Week 17 vs. Dolphins (7th). With Jameis Winston under center, the Browns will throw often.
Trade Away:
RB:
Najee Harris: He’s been great recently, averaging nearly 16 points per game. Unfortunately, his schedule turns challenging, he’s in a timeshare with Jalen Warren, and he may not be a consistent starter come playoffs. Most of his points come on volume and game script, which is fine if the script is neutral or positive. However, when you play the Ravens and the Chiefs in the fantasy playoffs, it’s hard to see a positive game script against the best run defenses in the league. IN the fantasy playoffs, Harris faces the Eagles (2nd against RBs), the Ravens (9th against RBs) and the Chiefs (1st against RBs). Add this to the fact he isn’t adding much in the passing game is a recipe for an early playoff exit for Harris managers
Rhamondre Stevenson: In games where he hasn’t scored a touchdown, Stevenson is averaging just 5.4 points. The volume and pass-game work have been inconsistent. His playoff schedule (Arizona, Buffalo, Chargers) looks favorable, but the overall performance in neutral and negative game scripts has been inconsistent. He’s someone I’d consider trading for an RB2 or flex.
WR:
Brian Thomas Jr.: The rookie has been a revelation this season! He was WR7 through week 8 and he and Trevor Lawrance were connecting on the deep ball in a way that Lawrance and Calvin Ridley never quite could. If I am in a keeper league or dynasty, then I’m obviously holding on to Thomas, but in redraft it’s time to consider trading him. We do not know what the injury status of Lawrance will be in the coming weeks as reports have circulated that he may need season ending surgery. On top of that, he faces the Jets in week 15 (1st against WRs), the Raiders in week 16 (6th against WRs), and the Titans in week 17 (3rd against WRs). If you can get an RB/WR2 for him, then I would pull the trigger.
Josh Downs: Even before the news of Anthony Richardson starting, I had Josh Downs as someone to trade away. Downs has been great with Flacco under center and decent but inconsistent with Richardson. The problem big problem, besides the mediocre quarterback play, are his playoff matchups: in week 15 he faces the Broncos (4th against WRs), week 16 he faces the Titans (3rd against WRs), and in week 17 he faces the Giants (15 against WRs). While the week 17 matchup is nice, he’s not going to carry you to the finals given his matchups in weeks 15 and 16. He’s WR 20 on the year at the moment, if I can swap him for another player in that range then I’m doing that in a heartbeat.
CeeDee Lamb: This doesn’t have anything to do with the playoff matchups. The Cowboys offense is fundamentally broken and, without Dak, there is no fixing it. Say what you want about Dak, but he played at an MVP level last year and made the best of a bad situation this year. This team cannot block - which means they cannot run the ball or pass more than 5 yards down the field. This severely limits Lamb’s potential as a WR1, but will still have fantasy relevance as a WR2. He would have earned 15 or so points last week against the Eagles if the sun hadn’t blinded him in the end zone for an easy touchdown. IF you can swap him for his WR1 value, then do it. Don’t sell low though, he’s still getting a 30+% target share, he’s the only Cowboys who has the potential to score a touchdown any given week, and his playoff schedule is Carolina (14th against WRs), Tampa Bay (29th against WR), and the Eagles again (13th against WRs). If I can get D.K. Metcaf, Drake London, or someone in that range then I’m shipping him out.