Before Week 1: Don’t Panic, Play Smart
Calm, Strong, Slow and Steady
Week 1 is always strange. Modern NFL offenses don’t get many real reps in the preseason, and it often takes a couple of weeks for teams to find rhythm. Fantasy managers, eager for instant results, can overreact to small samples. That’s how you end up cutting a future breakout star for a one-week wonder.
So before we get started, remember the first rule of Week 1: Do not panic.
Look for Meaningful Opportunity
Box scores tell part of the story, but usage tells the truth. Snap counts, target rates, and carry distribution matter more than raw fantasy points in Week 1. Also keep game script in mind. If the Eagles blow out my Cowboys and rookie RB Will Shipley racks up 15 touches in the second half, most of that is garbage time. The volume looks good, but the context shows it’s inflated.
What you really want to see are roles that project forward — who’s on the field in high-leverage situations, who’s trusted in the red zone, and who’s drawing consistent first-read targets. That’s the kind of usage that sustains production all year.
Don’t Bail on Rookies Too Early
Patience with rookies is critical. Their early stat lines rarely reflect their future value. For example, Chase Brown opened last season with 5.3, 3.1, and 8.9 fantasy points in his first three games. Bucky Irving wasn’t much better, starting with 9.6, 2.2, and 11.4. Both looked like dead roster spots in September — and both went on to become weekly fantasy starters.
Rookies need time to acclimate to NFL speed, build chemistry with their quarterbacks, and earn more snaps. If you invested in a rookie back or wideout, don’t hit the eject button after one or two quiet games. Those are often the players who win leagues down the stretch.
Play the Long Game with Trades
One of the smartest things you can do in September is scout other managers’ rosters. Look for weaknesses on their side and strengths on yours. If you went with a Hero RB build (anchoring your roster with one early workhorse, then stockpiling receivers), chances are you’ll have extra WR depth. That’s prime trade fuel.
Last season, after Week 3, I dealt Khalil Shakir for Bucky Irving. Irving’s usage was trending upward, and it felt like a “now or never” moment. By midseason, that move paid off in a big way. Timing your trades based on usage trends — not just fantasy box scores — is how you get ahead of the market.
Don’t Tank Week 1 for Waivers
Finally, don’t get cute with waiver strategy. Some managers will joke about “intentionally losing” Week 1 to secure top waiver priority. That almost never pays off. The odds of hitting the next Puka Nacua are slim, and the reality is you’re more likely, Isaiah Likely, to burn that priority on a fringe TE or WR3 than land a league-winner.
Last season, a friend of mine intentionally lost week one to have the top waiver priority in order to grab Ravens leagend Isaiah Likely. He missed the playoffs due to this move (and maybe one or two more).
Winning games matters. Every win increases playoff odds, and playoff berths are how championships are won. Don’t sabotage your roster chasing waiver miracles that, nine times out of ten, never come.
Bottom Line
Week 1 is weird. It always has been. But the managers who stay calm, track meaningful opportunity, exercise patience with rookies, and play the long game with trades set themselves up to dominate the rest of the season. So breathe, enjoy football being back, and remember: championships aren’t won in Week 1 — but they can be lost if you panic.