“Do not be fooled by its commonplace appearance. Like so many things, it is not what is outside, but what is inside that counts.” - Disney’s Aladdin.
Aladdin is a top 5 Disney movie in my opinion, but that is neither here nor there.
Every year, late-round players surprise analysts and, thanks to talent and opportunity, become weekly starters despite being drafted well after the early rounds. Last season’s league winners included Chuba Hubbard and Bucky Irving, while players like Rico Dowdle and Tyrone Tracy proved to be valuable contributors.
I will try to identify 8 late round flex targets, meaning 10th round or later, that could crack your starting lineup and take your team to the playoffs: 3 RBs, 3 WRs, and 2 TEs.
Today, I’m breaking down my four favorite late-round RB targets using draft data from ESPN.
Running Backs
Dylan Sampson (132 overall, RB45, ADP 160.9)
I thought about putting Jerome Ford here, but if Cleveland, or the rest of the league, believed Ford had something they wouldn’t have resigned him to such a small contract, where he took a pay cut for the 2025 season, reducing his salary from $3.48 million to $1.75 million, and then drafted two rookies Quinshon Judkins in the second round, and Sampson in the fourth round. With Judkins facing severe legal issues, and remaining unsigned, and Ford being just a guy, this backfield is up for the taking. Sampson was the SEC Offensive Player of the Year at Tennessee where he was:
SEC Leader in Rush Yards
SEC Leader in Rush TDs
SEC Leader in scrimmage yards
AND SCORED 22 Touchdowns
Situation
In 2023, the Cleveland Browns averaged 30.47 rush attempts per game. This ranked them 4th in the league for rushing attempts per game that season. In 2024, they averaged 23 rush attempts per game. This ranked them 28th in the league. Sampson will either have a rookie or the oldest QB in the league starting under center. Either way, the Browns will be looking to make life easier on their QB and Sampson will lead the charge. I anticipate the Browns will be closer to 30 attempts per game this season.
Conclusion
This is a great combination of Talent + Opportunity. I would not be surprised if Sampson finished the season as a weekly RB2. Jerome Ford finished as RB16 overall two years ago and RB33 last year. He will be a free agent after this year, so there is no reason for the Browns to make him the feature back when their future lies with Sampson. This is the steal of the draft. I assume his ADP will continue to rise in the coming weeks.
Jordan Mason (120 overall, RB 24, ADP 143.4)
Here is a backup with a seemingly clear role and a player in front of him, Aaron Jones, who, though he played 17 games last season, has struggled with injuries throughout his career.
Mason performed well last year when he was thrust into the starting role, particularly early in the season when he had three 100 yard games in the first four before injuries derailed his season.
The Vikings traded for Mason, meaning they saw something they really like and were willing to part with assets for it.
The Good News
Mason averages 5.2 yards per carry for his career. This is a smaller sample size as he has only earned 236 carries in his career.
Kevin O’Connell has spoken highly of Mason, viewing him as a "massive" part of the Vikings offense this season. Aaron Jones will continue to be the starter, but with his age and injury history, Mason will be one of the most valuable handcuffs who might have flex value on a weekly basis.
Offensive Changes
The Vikings have indicated that they want to run the ball more this season, they were in the middle of rush attempts last season, averaging just over 26 attempts per game. Aaron Jones last season averaged around 15 rushes per game, which leaves 11 rushes available. If they do run more, that would mean Mason could be looking at 12-14 touches per game, which would make him viable in deeper leagues and someone to keep on your bench in 10-team leagues
The offensive line has improved, ranking top 10 according to PFF and they have a first year starter at QB.
This means opportunity!
Goal Line Efficiency
According to Fantasy Pros, Aaron Jones had 24 rushes inside the 10 yard line, but only three touchdowns, all of which came inside the 5. He’s not a finisher. Jones averaged 0.3 yards per carry inside the 10 and -0.2 inside the 5. It would have been more effective to spike the ball than rush Aaron Jones inside the 5 last year.
Mason scored 3 touchdowns inside the 10 in the first four weeks.
Conclusion
While I don’t believe the reports that it will be a 50/50 split between Jones and Mason. I believe Mason will carve out a significant role, averaging 12-13 touches a game along with the high-valued goal line touches. He’s not someone I want as my RB2 going into the season, but a high floor option who can be a strong RB2 if anything happens to Jones.
Ray Davis (151 Overall, RB 54, ADP 168.9)
With regression candidate James Cook “holding in” at camp, wanting $15 million a year, and the Bills seem fine without him. General Manager Brandon Beane confirmed ongoing negotiations, but they seem unwilling to match Cook’s demands.
Last year the Bills split the backfield far more evenly than it seemed:
Davis was third on the team in snap share, only at 24%, yet was nearly as effective in points per snap, and that’s without the 7 TDs above expected that Cook had last year.
When Cook misses time, it’s Davis who takes the mantle. Week 6 vs. the Jets, Davis logged 20 carries for 97 rushing yards, plus 3 catches for 55 receiving yards on just three targets, earning 18.2 PPR points.
Davis still found pay dirt with three rushing TDs and three receiving TDs last season—despite playing limited snaps behind Ty Johnson and Cook.
Other Hold-outs
Historically, running backs who have held out during camp can underwhelm when the season begins, here are some recent examples:
Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (2018)
The Steelers used the franchise tag on Bell for the second time in a row and I think we all remember what happened. I drafted him #1 that year after he promised he would start the season. Bell refused to sign the tag and went on to sit out the entirety of the 2018 season.
He signed with the Jets in free agency the following offseason and never returned to the player he was for the Steelers.
I doubt that Cook will follow this route, since Bell ended up losing money on the deal.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (2019)
After holding out off of camp and the pre-season, Zeke led the league in rushing yards, totaling 1,357 yards and 12 touchdowns. He played in all 16 regular season games in what was his last statistically great season.
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers (2019)
Gordon was the lead back for the Chargers before his fifth-year option season. He went on to hold out all of training camp, the preseason, and the first three games of the regular season before reporting to the team without a new deal. He ended up averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and missed 4 games. When asked about what he would do differently, "I probably would come back," Gordon said, per NFL.com. "Obviously, those are games I can't get back. I started out slow and being able to catch my stride toward the end of the season, but then it's too late."
Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders (2023)
In 2022, Jacobs led the league in rushing with 1,653 yards, adding in 400 receiving yards, a career-best 12 touchdowns, and averaged 97.2 yards per game.
After holding out during training camp and the preseason, it took several weeks for Jacobs to find his legs and even then he never really got going and then injuries derailed what was Jacobs’ worst season yet. He only played 13 games and did not have a 100-yard rushing game until week 10 and only had two 100-yard rushing game the entire season.
Conclusion
There seems to be an increased injury risk or at a risk in starting the season poorly, associated with holding out. The recent sample size is so small that it is hard to statistically quantify it. Either way, while Cook is a great back, any lost chemistry or conditioning time could reduce early-season effectiveness—and open the door to increased Davis snaps. If Cook starts off slow, Davis will have a real opportunity to take the lead-back role in one of the best offenses in the league. You can typically grab him in the last round and he’s a worth-while flier who has shown he can produce when given the opportunity.
These are my favorite late round targets. Who are yours?